Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 4/8/2025

Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals will host the Minnesota Twins on April 8, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup between two struggling teams in the American League Central. The Royals sit at 5-5 this season, while the Twins have stumbled to a dismal 3-7 record. Both teams are looking to turn their fortunes around, especially after the Twins dropped yesterday's contest against the Royals.

On the mound, Kansas City is projected to start Cole Ragans, who is currently ranked as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Ragans has had a solid start to the season, boasting a respectable 3.60 ERA, although advanced metrics like his 2.84 FIP suggest he may have been unlucky thus far. His ability to strike out 6.9 batters while allowing only 2.1 earned runs on average today gives the Royals a fighting chance.

Pablo Lopez will take the hill for Minnesota, carrying an impressive 2.25 ERA this season. However, his 3.84 xFIP indicates he may be due for a regression. Lopez's average projection of 6.0 innings pitched suggests he could be effective against a Royals offense which has been struggling mightily.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs and a close moneyline favoring the Royals at -130, betting markets reflect the uncertainty surrounding this matchup. Kansas City’s ability to capitalize on Ragans’ strong performance could tilt the scales in their favor as they look to build momentum against a Twins team that has had difficulty finding its rhythm this season.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez has utilized his curveball 5.1% less often this season (4.9%) than he did last season (10%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Ty France's quickness has decreased this season. His 25.14 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 22.34 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

It may be smart to expect worse results for the Minnesota Twins offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 6th-luckiest offense in MLB since the start of last season.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans's 2550.6-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 95th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball hitters like Salvador Perez tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Pablo Lopez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals' bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 33 games (+17.25 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 93 games (+16.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• Harrison Bader has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 away games (+14.30 Units / 286% ROI)

• Date: April 8, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins
  • Cole Ragans - Royals

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