Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 4/7/2025

Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Minnesota Twins at Kauffman Stadium on April 7, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling early in the season. Kansas City holds a record of 4-5, while Minnesota sits at 3-6. The series opener represents a crucial opportunity for both teams to turn around their fortunes. Recently, the Royals haven't had the best luck, though their last game as a win as they look to find their rhythm.

On the mound, Kansas City will send Michael Lorenzen to the hill. Despite being ranked #174 among starting pitchers, Lorenzen's advanced stats suggest he could be primed for improvement; his 3.19 xFIP indicates he's been unfortunate thus far. However, he has struggled this season, with an ERA of 5.06 and a high walk rate of 12.5%. He projects to pitch approximately 5.4 innings, allowing about 2.6 earned runs.

The Twins will counter with Simeon Woods Richardson, a right-hander who has averaged 4.9 innings pitched with a 4.50 ERA. His strikeout rate may play against him, as he faces a Royals offense that has struck out the 6th least in the league. Woods Richardson's low walk rate of 5.9% might not serve him well against a Royals team that hasn’t shown much patience at the plate.

This game has a total set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations of a low-scoring affair. As the Royals look to leverage their home advantage, they come in with a higher implied team total of 4.35 runs. This suggests they might have a slight edge, even if their performance has not reflected it thus far. Will the Royals finally find their stride against another struggling offense?

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Among all starting pitchers, Simeon Woods Richardson's fastball spin rate of 2186.6 rpm grades out in the 15th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ryan Jeffers is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the most strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Minnesota Twins with a 25.7% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Michael Lorenzen will average a total of 2.5 singles in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Kyle Isbel is apt to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Kansas City Royals bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 30 games (+16.40 Units / 50% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 95 games (+15.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• Carlos Correa has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 39% ROI)

• Date: April 7, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins
  • Michael Lorenzen - Royals

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.