Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick & Preview – 9/6/2024

• Date: September 6, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zebby Matthews - Twins
  • Cole Ragans - Royals

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals host the Minnesota Twins on September 6, 2024, both teams find themselves in solid positions in the American League Central. The Royals hold a record of 76-65, while the Twins are slightly ahead at 76-64. Both clubs are enjoying above-average seasons, and this matchup could have implications for their postseason aspirations.

The Royals will send Cole Ragans to the mound, who is ranked 13th among starting pitchers in MLB according to advanced stats, marking him as an elite option. Ragans has started 28 games this season, posting a solid 3.46 ERA and a win-loss record of 10-9. While he projects to allow an average of 2.1 earned runs and strike out 6.6 batters today, his tendency to allow 4.7 hits and 1.9 walks could pose challenges against the Twins’ lineup.

On the other side, Minnesota will counter with Zebby Matthews, who has had a rough go this season with a 7.41 ERA and a 1-2 record over just four starts. Despite being considered above average in rankings, his performance has left much to be desired, especially with a projected average of 2.4 earned runs today. The Royals' offense, ranking 12th in MLB, will look to capitalize on Matthews’ struggles, while the Twins bring their 8th-best offense to the plate.

Betting odds favor the Royals, who have an implied team total of 4.06 runs, reflecting confidence in their ability to score against the struggling Twins’ pitching. With the projections leaning towards a Royals victory, this matchup promises to be a compelling start to their series.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Zebby Matthews has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 9.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (19.0) may lead us to conclude that Willi Castro has been unlucky this year with his 11.8 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected offense today (.299 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit weaker than their .322 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans has a large reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 9 opposite-handed bats today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Michael Massey has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Kansas City's 89.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the majors: #4 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 58 games at home (+7.00 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 89 games (+7.65 Units / 8% ROI)
• Paul DeJong has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+14.50 Units / 112% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.65 vs Kansas City Royals 4.27

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.