Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/31/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 31, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated matchup, the Houston Astros are set to take on the Minnesota Twins at Minute Maid Park on May 31, 2024. The Astros, who are struggling with a record of 25-32 this season, will try to turn their fortunes around against the Twins, who are enjoying a successful season with a record of 31-25.

The Astros will have the home-field advantage, hoping to capitalize on their strong offense, which ranks as the 5th best in MLB. Led by their best hitter, Alex Bregman, who has been on fire over the past week, the Astros have been consistently producing runs.

On the mound, the Astros will rely on right-handed pitcher Ronel Blanco, who has been having a remarkable season. Blanco, with a perfect 5-0 win/loss record and an exceptional 1.99 ERA, has been one of the top performers for the Astros. However, his advanced-stat Power Rankings place him as the #218 best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting that he may face challenges in this game.

Opposing Blanco will be the Twins' right-handed pitcher, Pablo Lopez. While Lopez has a subpar 4-5 win/loss record and a disappointing 5.25 ERA, his advanced-stat Power Rankings position him as the #20 best starting pitcher in MLB. This indicates that Lopez has the potential to deliver a strong performance and prove his worth on the mound.

The Twins' offense, led by their best hitter Alex Kirilloff, has been performing solidly this season. Although their team batting average ranks 22nd in MLB, they have displayed power with the 7th highest number of home runs. However, their stolen base ranking sits at a lowly 24th.

According to the current odds, the Astros are favored with a moneyline set at -115, giving them a 51% implied win probability. The Twins, with a moneyline of -105, have a 49% implied win probability. This suggests that the game is expected to be closely contested.

With the Astros' potent offense and the Twins' strong pitching, this American League matchup promises to be an exciting game for both fans and sports bettors alike. The outcome of this game could have significant implications for both teams as they continue their respective journeys in the 2024 MLB season.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez's four-seamer percentage has increased by 5.3% from last year to this one (34.5% to 39.8%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Edouard Julien is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen projects as the 4th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco's fastball velocity has fallen 1 mph this year (92.8 mph) below where it was last year (93.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Chas McCormick's speed has fallen off this year. His 28.09 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.59 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.1% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 57 games (+9.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.20 Units / 31% ROI)
• Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+12.55 Units / 39% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.8 vs Houston Astros 4.36

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