Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Pick – 6/14/2025

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on June 14, 2025, both teams are looking to gain an edge in the tightly contested American League. The Astros currently sit at 39-30, enjoying a solid season, while the Twins are right behind with a record of 36-33, marking an above-average year. Houston's pitching will be led by Hunter Brown, who boasts an impressive 1.82 ERA and ranks as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB, though projections suggest he might face some challenges moving forward. Meanwhile, Joe Ryan, with a solid 2.96 ERA and a ranking of 16th, will counter for Minnesota.

In their last matchup, the Astros defeated the Twins, but both teams have been inconsistent lately. Houston's offense ranks 14th overall but struggles with home runs (20th) and stolen bases (22nd), indicating a lack of explosive hits. On the other hand, Minnesota's offense is slightly better positioned at 15th overall but also suffers from a lack of power, ranking 18th in home runs.

With the Astros projected to score a modest 3.62 runs and the Twins at an even lower 3.38, this low-scoring affair seems likely, especially considering both pitchers' capabilities. Additionally, Joe Ryan's high strikeout rate (28.3 K%) faces off against a low-strikeout Astros lineup, which may work in Houston's favor.

Betting markets are viewing this as a close contest, with Houston favored at -125. However, given their current form and the strength of their bullpen, ranked 7th in MLB, the Astros could pull off a win today despite the tight odds.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan's 92.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.3-mph drop off from last year's 94-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Matt Wallner has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.8-mph to 97.7-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Hunter Brown (49.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 GB hitters in Minnesota's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme flyball bats like Victor Caratini usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Joe Ryan.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 59 games (+9.67 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 66 games (+8.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.90 Units / 42% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.64, Houston Astros 3.43

• Date: June 14, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ryan - Twins
  • Hunter Brown - Astros

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