Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/14/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Overview

• Date: April 14, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers
• Run Line: Twins -1.5 155, Tigers 1.5 -175
• Money Line: Twins -110, Tigers -110
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 50%
• Detroit Tigers - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 50.1%
• Detroit Tigers - 49.9%

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated American League Central matchup, the Detroit Tigers will host the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park on April 14, 2024. The Tigers, with a season record of 8-6, are having a good season so far, while the Twins, with a record of 6-7, are experiencing a below-average season.

The Tigers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jack Flaherty, who has a record of 0-1 this year with an ERA of 5.25. Despite his current numbers, Flaherty's 3.05 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other hand, the Twins are projected to start Bailey Ober, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled this season with an ERA of 12.79. However, Ober's 4.84 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may improve in future outings.

Flaherty is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs and striking out 5.2 batters. However, his weakness lies in allowing 5.3 hits and 1.9 walks on average. Ober, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs and striking out 5.2 batters. He struggles with allowing 4.9 hits and 1.1 walks on average.

The Tigers offense ranks as the 25th best in MLB this season, with a low team batting average and a lack of power and stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Twins offense ranks slightly higher at 26th, with a better team batting average and a higher number of home runs. However, both teams have struggled offensively this season.

In terms of bullpen strength, THE BAT X considers the Tigers bullpen as the 12th best in MLB, while the Twins bullpen ranks 7th. This suggests that the Twins may have a slight advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, both teams have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs for this game, with a Game Total of 8.5 runs. This indicates that the betting markets expect a close game.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober's 90.7-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 12th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Wallner in the 11th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen ranks as the 8th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Compared to league average, Jack Flaherty has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, recording an extra 4.5 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Parker Meadows has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Parker Meadows hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Twins vs Tigers Prediction: Twins 4.67 - Tigers 4.4

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