Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Prediction – 6/29/2025

The matchup on June 29, 2025, at Comerica Park features the Detroit Tigers hosting the Minnesota Twins in the third game of the series. The Tigers are enjoying a strong season with a 52-32 record, firmly positioned in the American League Central. In contrast, the Twins sit under .500 at 40-43, struggling to find any consistency. Detroit's recent form was highlighted by a dominant performance; they secured a convincing win in yesterday's game, further establishing their prowess this season.

Detroit's Tarik Skubal takes the mound today, and he has been nothing short of elite. Skubal is currently ranked as the best starting pitcher in MLB, boasting a 9-2 record and an impressive 2.29 ERA. His projections today indicate he will pitch around 6.0 innings, allowing just 1.9 earned runs while striking out 7.6 batters. This presents a significant challenge for the Twins, who are projected to start Chris Paddack. Paddack, with a below-average 3-6 record and a 4.64 ERA, faces a Tigers offense that ranks as the 5th best in MLB, particularly dangerous given their ability to pile up runs.

While the Tigers excel in power, ranking 9th in home runs, the Twins' offense has struggled, sitting at 16th overall and 22nd in batting average. The projections suggest a low-scoring affair with a Game Total set at just 7.0 runs, but given the disparity in pitching talent and offensive strength, the Tigers appear poised to capitalize. With a moneyline of -285, the Tigers are heavily favored, and their high implied team total of 4.36 runs reflects the expectation of another strong offensive performance. The Twins, on the other hand, find themselves as underdogs with an implied total of only 2.64 runs, underlining their offensive struggles this season.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Chris Paddack's higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (49.5 compared to 42.9% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Christian Vazquez's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 90.5-mph EV last year has decreased to 86.5-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Placing 4th-steepest in the league this year, Minnesota Twins bats collectively have posted a 15.9° launch angle on their hardest-hit balls (an advanced standard to measure power ability).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal's fastball spin rate has increased 101 rpm this year (2327 rpm) over where it was last year (2226 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Bats such as Javier Baez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Chris Paddack who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 82 games (+14.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 73 games (+8.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• Wenceel Perez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 36% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.39, Detroit Tigers 4.66

• Date: June 29, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Paddack - Twins
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

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