Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Prediction – 6/28/2025

As the Detroit Tigers host the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park on June 28, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their standings in the American League Central. The Tigers currently sit at an impressive 51-32, showcasing a strong season, while the Twins hold a 40-42 record, reflecting an average performance thus far. This matchup is critical for both teams, especially after the Twins took the first game of the series.

The Tigers will send Casey Mize to the mound, who has been solid this year with a 7-2 record and an excellent ERA of 2.88. Despite his average Power Ranking of #114 among starting pitchers, Mize's numbers indicate he has been somewhat fortunate; his 3.90 xFIP suggests he might regress. However, he projects to pitch 5.3 innings today, allowing around 2.5 earned runs, but his tendency to give up hits and walks could be a concern.

On the other side, Bailey Ober is slated to start for the Twins. With a record of 4-5 and a below-average ERA of 4.90, Ober also finds himself in the realm of average in terms of projections. His 5.6 innings pitched with 2.8 earned runs projected today paints a picture of a pitcher operating under similar circumstances as Mize. However, his low strikeout rate against a high-strikeout Tigers offense might give him an edge.

Offensively, the Tigers rank 5th in MLB, with a particularly strong performance in home runs, while the Twins are positioned at 16th overall. With the Tigers favored at a moneyline of -150, their chances appear favorable, especially given their superior lineup and home-field advantage. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup ahead.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober's fastball velocity has dropped 1.9 mph this year (89.8 mph) below where it was last year (91.7 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Ty France is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Ranking 4th-highest in Major League Baseball this year, Minnesota Twins bats collectively have compiled a 15.7° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (a reliable standard to measure power skills).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Casey Mize (45.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 2 GB hitters in Minnesota's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Colt Keith has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.7-mph to 95.6-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers' bullpen projects as the 2nd-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 79 games (+13.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 59 games (+8.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Brooks Lee has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+12.50 Units / 208% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.53, Detroit Tigers 4.86

• Date: June 28, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Casey Mize - Tigers

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