Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 8/3/2025
The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians close out their three-game series on Sunday afternoon with Cleveland looking to complete a sweep. Cleveland has won the first two games of this series by one run apiece and they will look to get another win over a Twins team that has had a rough week both on and off the field. Here, I break down this AL Central matchup and give you my Twins vs Guardians prediction.
Our Twins vs Guardians Pick
- Pick: Guardians -1.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians
- Date & Time: Sunday, August 3, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Jose Ureña vs Joey Cantillo
- Stadium: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
The Twins call upon journeyman Jose Urena to start this game on the mound. Urena is making his debut for Minnesota after stints with three other teams this season. He carries a 5.40 ERA and will look to settle in with the Twins. Opposing him is Cleveland rookie Joey Cantillo. Cantillo is a southpaw who has posted a 4.14 ERA and a 2-1 record so far this year. The Guardians have the starting pitching advantage going into this game and will look to use it to secure a sweep.
Key Players
The Guardians have standout third baseman José Ramírez to lead their lineup. Ramirez leads the Guardians with a .300 AVG, 22 HR, and 59 RBI. Steven Kwan continues to reach base and drive in runs. He is hitting over .285 on the season. Minnesota is devoid of its stars after trading away Carlos Correa, Jhoan Duran, and Harrison Bader. They have also placed All‑Star Byron Buxton on the injured list. The lineup lacks punch and experience amid their midseason fire sale.
Recent team streaks
The Guardians have won their last four games. That includes two wins over Minnesota this weekend. Minnesota has now dropped four straight and looks overmatched with their depleted roster.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| José Ramírez | Home runs | Over 0.5 |
| Joey Cantillo | Strikeouts | Over 4.5 |
| Jose Ramírez | Total bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Cleveland leads the season series against the Twins by a 6-2 margin.
- The Guardians have won three straight games against the Twins.
- Cleveland is 4-1 in one-run games against the Twins this year.
Twins vs Guardians Model Projection
Score Projection: Guardians 5 – Twins 3
Win Probability: Guardians 57%, Twins 43%
Final Thoughts
The Guardians are riding high and riding a winning streak into this series finale with the Twins. Minnesota is in a terrible place right now after trading away so many key players and dealing with injuries on top of that. Cleveland should keep their winning streak going and should cover the runline in this matchup against a Minnesota team that has punted on this season with their trades.
