Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 8/1/2025
AL Central rivals will face off when the Minnesota Twins take on the Cleveland Guardians on Friday night at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Both teams are in the race for second place in their division behind the Detroit Tigers and are trying to stay within striking distance in the AL Wild Card race. For a full breakdown of this division rivalry game, continue reading to get my Twins vs Guardians prediction.
Our Twins vs Guardians Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5 Total Runs
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
| Matchup | Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians |
| Date & Time | August 1, 2025, 7:10 PM EDT |
| Starting Pitchers | Joe Ryan vs. Gavin Williams |
| Stadium | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Broadcast | MLB.tv |
Key Storylines to Watch
Pitching Matchup: Joe Ryan and Gavin Williams will take the mound to start this game. Ryan is 10-5 with a 2.82 ERA for the Twins this year. Williams is 6-4 on the season and has a 3.51 ERA. Ryan will look to be a steading force after a chaotic trade deadline day for the Twins.
Trade Deadline: The MLB trade deadline came and went on Thursday. The Twins were by far the biggest sellers in the league. That approach was not a vote of confidence for the rest of the players that remain on their roster heading into the final two months of the season. But the Twins will look to prove their front office wrong with a win in this game.
Team Momentum: The Guardians won two straight games against the Colorado Rockies coming into this series opener. Minnesota has dropped two games in a row and four of their last five games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| José Ramírez | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Byron Buxton | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Joe Ryan | Strikeouts | Over 6.5 |
Betting Trends & Head-to-Head
Cleveland is 4-2 against the Twins so far this season.
Cleveland is 3-1 at home against the Twins to this point in the year.
Both teams have gone under the total in the majority of their games this season.
The Guardians have covered the runline 52.8% of the time during the 2025 season.
Twins vs Guardians Model Projection
Projected Score: Twins 4 – Guardians 3
Win Probability: Twins 55% | Guardians 45%
Final Thoughts
The Twins are struggling lately and they showed at the trade deadline that they don’t plan on being all that competitive for a Wild Card spot. But they do have a starting pitching advantage going into this contest. Joe Ryan should have a good game for the Twins tonight for an inconsistent Guardians offense. I’ll take the Twins to win on the moneyline and to look motivated to prove that they can still compete despite losing some key players.
