Minnesota Twins vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 6/18/2025

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face the Minnesota Twins on June 18, 2025, they find themselves in an intriguing matchup that could have playoff implications. Currently, the Reds hold a record of 38-35, putting them in a solid position above .500, while the Twins sit at 36-36, hovering around average. The Reds' offense ranks as the 10th best in MLB, showcasing their ability to generate runs, while the Twins are slightly behind at 17th.

In their last matchup, the Reds emerged victorious, and they will look to build on that momentum with Nick Lodolo on the mound. Lodolo has had an above-average season, currently ranked as the 85th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats, with a respectable ERA of 3.76. However, he has struggled with allowing hits and walks, projecting to give up 5.6 hits and 1.4 walks today, which could be a concern against a team like the Twins that can capitalize on such opportunities.

Bailey Ober, on the other hand, is projected to pitch for the Twins. While he is considered an average pitcher, he faces a Reds lineup that has the 6th highest strikeout rate in MLB, which plays to his advantage as a low-strikeout pitcher. Ober’s ERA is 4.40, and he will need to keep the Reds' hitters in check to give his team a chance.

With both teams set at a moneyline of -110, betting markets indicate a close contest. The projected game total is high at 9.0 runs, suggesting plenty of action is expected. The Reds' recent offensive success could provide the edge they need to secure another win. As they aim to solidify their standing, this game represents a pivotal moment in the series.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober's 89.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.9-mph decline from last season's 91.7-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Christian Vazquez's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 90.5-mph mark last season has dropped to 86.6-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue in the league — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Extreme groundball batters like Elly De La Cruz tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Bailey Ober.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jose Trevino, the Reds's expected catcher in today's matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 72 games (+6.00 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 away games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jake Fraley has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+8.30 Units / 83% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 5.02, Cincinnati Reds 4.95

• Date: June 18, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds

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