Minnesota Twins vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 6/17/2025

On June 17, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Minnesota Twins in an Interleague matchup at Great American Ball Park. Both teams are hovering around .500 this season, with the Reds sitting at 37-35 and the Twins at 36-35. The stakes are high for both squads as they aim to gain traction in their respective divisions. The Reds' Andrew Abbott, who has been exceptional with a 1.87 ERA this year, will take the mound, while the Twins counter with David Festa, who has struggled somewhat with a 4.76 ERA.

Abbott's performance has been noteworthy; he boasts a solid 6-1 record and is coming off a strong outing where he pitched 7 innings, allowing just 1 earned run. His advanced stats suggest he has been a bit lucky, as his xFIP sits at 3.95, indicating potential regression. Nonetheless, Abbott is projected to pitch around 5.3 innings today, allowing approximately 2.9 earned runs, which is below average.

On the other side, Festa has not had the same success. With only 5 starts under his belt this season, he holds a 1-1 record and is projected to pitch 4.4 innings, allowing around 2.4 earned runs. Despite being labeled as an average pitcher, his projections indicate he may improve, given his lower xFIP of 4.24.

Offensively, the Reds rank 10th in MLB. In contrast, the Twins' offense sits at 18th in the league, struggling particularly in batting average and stolen bases. Cincinnati's high implied team total of 4.35 runs suggests confidence in their ability to capitalize on Festa's vulnerabilities.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

David Festa is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Matt Wallner has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (96% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.1% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Andrew Abbott's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (52.6% compared to 46.5% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Will Benson has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.9-mph to 98.4-mph over the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jose Trevino, the Reds's expected catcher in today's game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.90 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 58 games (+9.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• Brooks Lee has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games (+7.35 Units / 67% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.82, Cincinnati Reds 5.11

• Date: June 17, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Festa - Twins
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds

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