Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Prediction – 8/22/2025
The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox will square off on Friday night in the first game of a three-game series. These AL Central rivals are both below .500 this season and most of the way out of playoff contention. Before the first pitch from Chicago, I’ve broken this game down and you can get my Twins vs White Sox prediction below.
Our Twins vs White Sox Pick
- Pick: White Sox moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox
- Date & Time: Friday, August 22, 2025, 7:40 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Zebby Matthews (Twins) vs Aaron Civale (White Sox)
- Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
- Broadcast: CHSN and MNNT
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Zebby Matthews draws the start for Minnesota. He has a 5.06 ERA for the season and has not made an impact for the Twins in his 48 innings of work. Aaron Civale will get the start for Chicago. He has a slightly lower ERA of 4.88. But both starters have struggled this year and one will need to step up to help them get a win in this game.
Key Players
Both of these teams are being carried by individual talents offensively. Byron Buxton leads the Twins in batting average, home runs, and RBI. Lenyn Sosa leads the White Sox in those three categories. Which of those players performs better in this game could give their team the inside track to a win in this division rivalry game.
Recent team streaks
- The Twins have lost three games in a row and they have lost four of their last five.
- The White Sox have lost two straight games and four of their last five.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Trevor Larnach | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
| Lenyn Sosa | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Aaron Civale | Over 4.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Twins have a 4-2 lead in their season series against the White Sox this year.
- The Twins are 25-38 on the road this season.
- The White Sox are 26-36 at home in 2025.
- Three of the last four games between these teams have gone under the total.
Twins vs White Sox Model Projection
Score Projection: White Sox 5 – Twins 4
Win Probability: White Sox 52%, Twins 48%
Final Thoughts
The Twins have the better team on paper but that hasn’t translated to many more wins than the White Sox this season. Chicago has the starting pitching advantage in this game and that should be enough to help them get over the finish line in this contest. I’ll take the White Sox to win this series opening contest on the moneyline over their division rivals.
