Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Pick – 3/31/2025

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

On March 31, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Minnesota Twins at Guaranteed Rate Field in what promises to be a crucial matchup for both teams struggling early in the season. The White Sox enter the game with a record of 1-2 and are projected to start Martin Perez, while the Twins are looking for their first win at 0-3, with Chris Paddack taking the mound. Notably, the Twins' offense ranks 11th in MLB, offering a stark contrast to the White Sox, who have the 30th best offense this season, underscoring the challenges Chicago faces.

Martin Perez, despite being a left-handed pitcher, has not impressed this season, ranking as the 374th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. He projects to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, but his strikeout rate of 3.8 and high projections for hits (5.1) and walks (1.9) raise concerns. Conversely, Chris Paddack, while also not elite, has a slightly better projection with 2.2 earned runs allowed and a higher strikeout projection of 4.4.

The White Sox's offensive woes are evident as they rank last in batting average, home runs, and overall offensive output. This poor performance is compounded by a bullpen that ranks 29th in the league, putting additional pressure on Perez to perform. Meanwhile, the Twins boast a respectable bullpen ranked 13th, which could play a pivotal role late in the game.

With a game total set at 8.0 runs, the projections favor the Twins, who have a higher implied team total of 4.49 runs compared to the White Sox's lowly 3.51. As both teams look to turn their seasons around, this matchup presents an opportunity for the Twins to capitalize on their offensive strengths against a faltering White Sox squad.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Chris Paddack’s fastball velocity over his last 3 GS (91.5 mph) has been significantly slower than than his seasonal rate (92.7 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Jose Miranda is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

It may be wise to expect negative regression for the Minnesota Twins offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-luckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Martin Perez to be on a bit of a short leash in today's game, projecting a maximum of 78 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Thaiss stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 58 of their last 104 games (+14.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.35 Units / 35% ROI)

• Date: March 31, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Paddack - Twins
  • Martin Perez - White Sox

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.