Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick & Preview – 7/9/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: July 9, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Erick Fedde - White Sox

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

The Chicago White Sox are set to host the Minnesota Twins at Guaranteed Rate Field on July 9, 2024. This American League Central clash features two teams on opposite ends of the standings. The White Sox, with a dismal 26-67 record, are struggling through a tough season. Meanwhile, the Twins are enjoying a strong campaign with a 52-39 mark.

Chicago will send Erick Fedde to the mound. Although Fedde sports an impressive 3.13 ERA and a 6-3 record across 18 starts, his 3.78 xFIP suggests some luck has been on his side. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, indicates he might regress. He’s expected to pitch 5.8 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs, which is above average. Fedde's peripheral stats, like his estimated 5.3 hits and 1.5 walks allowed per game, also raise some concerns.

Opposing him, the Twins' Bailey Ober brings a solid 8-4 record and a 4.12 ERA to the table. Ober's 3.55 SIERA indicates he's been unlucky, positioning him as a potential breakout candidate. The projections show Ober is expected to pitch 5.6 innings and give up 2.3 earned runs, a good mark. However, his projected 5.0 hits and 0.9 walks allowed per game suggest he’s far from a control artist.

Offensively, the Twins have a clear edge. Ranked 4th in overall offense and 6th in both team batting average and home runs, they pose a tough challenge for the White Sox. Chicago’s lineup, ranking 29th in overall offense, has struggled mightily, with poor marks in batting average and home runs, although their 16th-place rank in stolen bases is a small bright spot.

Relief pitching could also play a decisive role. The Twins' bullpen is ranked 4th, while the White Sox bullpen languishes at 28th. This disparity could loom large in the later innings.

Given all these factors, the Twins are deserved -165 favorites with an implied win probability of 60%, while the White Sox sit at +140 underdogs with a 40% implied chance of victory. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, an average figure, but one that seems attainable given the offensive and defensive contexts.

With Bailey Ober looking to capitalize on a favorable matchup and Minnesota’s potent offense ready to pounce, the Twins are well-positioned to continue their strong run and secure another win in this series.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bailey Ober has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.9% more often this season (61.2%) than he did last year (54.3%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Byron Buxton has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.4-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.5-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected offense today (.312 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .327 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The Chicago White Sox outfield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Batters such as Eloy Jimenez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Bailey Ober who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 34 games at home (+3.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 41 games (+13.10 Units / 27% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.05 Units / 37% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.44 vs Chicago White Sox 3.77

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