Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/5/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: August 5, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Festa - Twins
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On August 5, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will host the Minnesota Twins at Wrigley Field for the first game of their Interleague series. The Cubs, with a record of 55-59, are having a below-average season, while the Twins sit at 62-48, showcasing a strong performance so far. Notably, the Cubs last played on August 4, where they beat the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday Night Baseball.

Projected to start for the Cubs is Kyle Hendricks, who has had a rough outing this season with a 3-9 record and a troubling ERA of 6.86, ranking him as the 142nd best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced metrics. However, his xFIP of 4.44 suggests that he has been somewhat unlucky, which opens the door for potential improvement. He projects to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs, but his tendency to give up hits—averaging 5.0 per game—could be a significant concern.

On the other side, the Twins will send out David Festa, who has started just four games with a record of 1-2 and an ERA of 6.98. While Festa's projections indicate he may allow 2.1 earned runs over around 4.6 innings, his relatively solid 3.87 xFIP suggests he could also see better results. Both pitchers struggle with walks, with Festa showing low walk rates against a Cubs lineup that has displayed patience, ranking 5th in MLB in walks.

The Cubs offense ranks 23rd in batting average and home runs, making it a tough matchup against a Twins lineup that is 6th in overall offense. Despite their inconsistent performance, the projections indicate a closer game than expected, as the Cubs have an implied team total of 3.86 runs compared to the Twins' 4.14. Fans and bettors alike will be watching to see if the Cubs can reverse their fortunes and capitalize on any mistakes from Festa.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

David Festa has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 12.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen ranks as the 10th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Kyle Hendricks's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (51.4% vs. 44.7% last year) should work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Chicago Cubs will tally 4.3 runs on average in this game: the 4th-least of all teams in action today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games at home (+9.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games (+13.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 51% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.34 vs Chicago Cubs 4.3

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.