Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 5/15/2025

As the Baltimore Orioles host the Minnesota Twins on May 15, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their standings in the American League. The Orioles sit at 15-26 this season, struggling to find consistency and currently ranked 4th in the AL East. The Twins, on the other hand, are faring better with a 23-20 record, aiming to solidify their position in the competitive AL Central.

In their last encounter, the Twins managed to edge out the Orioles, continuing a trend that highlights their offensive prowess over Baltimore's struggling lineup. Tomoyuki Sugano is projected to start for the Orioles, holding a Win/Loss record of 4-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.72 this season. However, advanced stats suggest he may have been fortunate, as his xFIP is considerably higher at 4.29, indicating potential regression. Sugano's tendency to allow 6.0 hits and 3.2 earned runs per game could be a cause for concern against a Twins lineup that, while not among the best, ranks 21st in overall offensive performance.

Chris Paddack takes the mound for Minnesota, bringing a less-than-stellar 4.76 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 1-3. The projections suggest he may struggle as well, with averages of 5.6 hits and 3.0 earned runs allowed. However, the Twins' offense, ranked 19th in team batting average, could capitalize on Sugano's potential overperformance.

Interestingly, the Orioles' bullpen ranks 6th best in MLB this season, which could provide relief if Sugano falters early. This matchup presents an intriguing dynamic: a below-average Twins offense against a pitcher who may be due for a downturn, while the Orioles attempt to leverage their strong bullpen to overcome their offensive struggles. With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, it promises to be a competitive contest, making the Orioles' high implied team total of 4.76 runs particularly noteworthy.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Chris Paddack has utilized his secondary pitches 9.6% less often this season (47.5%) than he did last season (57.1%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Brooks Lee is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen profiles as the 7th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The Baltimore Orioles infield defense projects as the strongest among all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Cedric Mullins is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Jackson Holliday has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and will be challenged by the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games (+12.10 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 21 games (+12.75 Units / 49% ROI)
• Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 37% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.86, Baltimore Orioles 5.27

• Date: May 15, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Paddack - Twins
  • Tomoyuki Sugano - Orioles

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