Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 5/13/2025

On May 13, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Minnesota Twins at Oriole Park at Camden Yards for the opening game of their series. Both teams are struggling to find their rhythm this season, with the Orioles sitting at 15-24 and the Twins at 21-20. Neither team is in contention for the top of their division, but this matchup presents an opportunity to gain ground in a tightly contested Wild Card race.

In their last outings, both teams got wins and they will look to get another one in this matchup. The projections for this game suggest a competitive atmosphere, with the Orioles having an implied team total of 4.76 runs, indicating a belief in their potential to hit the scoreboard.

Cade Povich is slated to start for the Orioles. Despite holding a 1-3 record with a rough 5.55 ERA, his 4.37 xFIP suggests he might be due for better performance. On the other side, Simeon Woods Richardson, with a 2-2 record and a more respectable 4.01 ERA, has also shown signs of inconsistency, as his 4.79 xFIP points to possible regression.

Both offenses rank in the lower tier of MLB, with the Orioles ranked 22nd and the Twins at 21st. However, the Orioles do boast a decent power ranking, sitting 11th in home runs, which could play a crucial role in today’s game. The Orioles' bullpen ranks 7th in MLB, a bright spot in an otherwise challenging season, and might provide a strategic advantage should the starters falter.

With a high game total of 9.0 runs, bettors might find value in the Orioles' ability to capitalize on their home field advantage, despite the cloud of uncertainty surrounding both starting pitchers.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #2 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

From last season to this one, Willi Castro's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 90.6 mph to 84.4 mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen profiles as the 9th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Cade Povich has relied on his four-seamer 5% less often this year (35.7%) than he did last season (40.7%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Extreme flyball hitters like Cedric Mullins tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Simeon Woods Richardson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Heston Kjerstad has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 37 games (+11.35 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games (+11.20 Units / 31% ROI)
• Harrison Bader has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.25 Units / 59% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.95, Baltimore Orioles 4.98

• Date: May 13, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins
  • Cade Povich - Orioles

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