Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick & Preview 6/25/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: June 25, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ryan - Twins
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks and Minnesota Twins gear up for their interleague showdown on June 25, 2024, both teams find themselves in different places this season. The Diamondbacks are having an average year with a 38-40 record, while the Twins are enjoying a solid campaign at 43-35. This game at Chase Field marks the first in a series between these two teams.

Starting on the mound for Arizona is Brandon Pfaadt, who has shown flashes of potential despite a 3-6 record and a 4.37 ERA. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Pfaadt's 3.77 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and could rebound with better performances. He averages 5.5 innings per start and is expected to strike out 5.2 batters, although his projected 2.6 earned runs and 5.3 hits allowed indicate some vulnerability.

Opposing him is Joe Ryan for Minnesota, who has been one of the top pitchers this season. With a 5-5 record and a 3.13 ERA, Ryan ranks as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings, allow 2.5 earned runs, and strike out 6.1 batters, showcasing his ability to limit damage and rack up strikeouts.

Offensively, both teams have capable lineups. The Diamondbacks rank as the 7th best offense and 8th in team batting average, supported by recent hot streaks from players like Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who has hit .476 with a 1.095 OPS over the last week. In contrast, the Twins rank 10th in offense and 5th in home runs, with Willi Castro leading the charge recently, hitting .375 with a 1.131 OPS over the last seven games.

On the bullpen front, Minnesota holds a significant edge, ranking 7th compared to Arizona's 27th. This disparity could play a crucial role in the late innings, especially in a game projected to have a low total of 7.5 runs.

Betting markets have the Twins slightly favored at -120, implying a 52% win probability, while the Diamondbacks are at +100, suggesting a 48% chance. Given Minnesota's stronger season, better starting pitcher, and superior bullpen, they seem poised to edge out Arizona in what should be a closely contested game.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

With 6 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Joe Ryan faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Minnesota Twins have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Extreme groundball batters like Eugenio Suarez usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Joe Ryan.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 56 games (+8.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Austin Martin has hit the Runs Over in his last 5 games (+8.75 Units / 175% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.73 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.35

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