Minnesota Twins at Washington Nationals Best Bet – 5/22/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 22, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Simeon Woods Richard - Twins
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals are set to host the Minnesota Twins in an Interleague matchup on May 22, 2024, at Nationals Park. The Nationals, with a record of 21-26 this season, are having a tough year, while the Twins, with a record of 25-23, are performing above average.

The Nationals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jake Irvin, who has a 2-4 win/loss record this year. Irvin has shown promise with an ERA of 3.91, although his 4.44 xERA suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. His 3.33 FIP, however, indicates that he may have been unlucky and could perform better in the future. Irvin is expected to pitch around 5.2 innings and allow an average of 3.0 earned runs per game. He has a below-average strikeout rate and is projected to allow 5.3 hits and 1.9 walks on average.

On the other side, the Twins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Simeon Woods Richard. Woods Richard has a 1-0 win/loss record this season and an impressive ERA of 2.97. However, his 4.04 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. Woods Richard is expected to pitch around 5.2 innings and allow an average of 2.8 earned runs per game. He has a below-average strikeout rate and is projected to allow 5.4 hits and 1.6 walks on average.

The Nationals offense ranks as the 25th best in MLB this season, while the Twins offense ranks 17th. The Nationals have a higher team batting average (6th in MLB) compared to the Twins (22nd), but the Twins have more power with a higher ranking in team home runs (7th). The Nationals have an average ranking in team stolen bases (14th), while the Twins rank low in this category (24th).

Based on the current odds, the Nationals have an implied win probability of 45%, while the Twins have a 55% chance of winning. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring in this game.

Overall, the Nationals are facing a high-strikeout Twins offense, which could work in their favor given their low-strikeout pitching. However, the Twins have an advantage with their strong bullpen and the Nationals' struggles on offense. It should be an intriguing matchup between these two teams with contrasting strengths and weaknesses.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Simeon Woods Richardson is projected to throw 85 pitches in today's outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Max Kepler is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen profiles as the best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jake Irvin has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 9.2% more often this year (44.6%) than he did last year (35.4%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Despite posting a .199 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Keibert Ruiz has suffered from bad luck given the .100 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .299.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Joey Gallo pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 41 games (+7.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.84 Units / 36% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 33 games (+8.70 Units / 21% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 5.18 vs Washington Nationals 4.56

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