Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers Pick For 8/18/2024

• Date: August 18, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins
  • Tyler Mahle - Rangers

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers prepare to face the Minnesota Twins on August 18, 2024, this matchup carries significant weight given both teams' performances this season. The Rangers, with a record of 56-68, are significantly underperforming, while the Twins stand at a strong 70-53, showcasing their solid play. Despite their struggles, the Rangers possess the 5th best bullpen in the league, which could play a crucial role in today's game.

In their last outing, the Rangers faced a tough loss, with the Twins securing a 5-2 victory over Texas on Saturday. This game marks the fourth in the series, and with the Twins riding high on their recent successes, they are poised to capitalize on the Rangers' inconsistencies.

Starting for the Rangers is Tyler Mahle, who is ranked as the 76th best starting pitcher in MLB. Mahle's season has been a mixed bag; despite a commendable ERA of 2.79, his 4.90 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate thus far. He projects to pitch about 5.3 innings today, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 4.4 hits and 1.7 walks per game could spell trouble against a potent Twins lineup.

On the other side, Pablo Lopez takes the mound for Minnesota. Ranked 23rd among starting pitchers, Lopez has been key to the Twins' success, holding a record of 11-8 and an ERA of 4.67. With his lower xFIP of 3.32, projections indicate he could be due for a breakout performance. Expect Lopez to challenge the struggling Rangers' offense, which ranks 23rd in the league.

With a game total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets see this as a closely contested matchup, with the Rangers' moneyline at +100 and the Twins at -120. The projections indicate that the Twins are likely to continue their good form against a Rangers team that has struggled to find consistency this season.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Among every team today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Max Kepler is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Minnesota Twins offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Tyler Mahle has been given less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 10.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Jonah Heim's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 89-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 80.7-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Texas Rangers bullpen ranks as the 6th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games at home (+10.80 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 59 games (+9.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 36 games (+8.95 Units / 19% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.14 vs Texas Rangers 4.35

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