Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers Pick For 8/17/2024

• Date: August 17, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Festa - Twins
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers host the Minnesota Twins on August 17, 2024, both teams come into this matchup with contrasting trajectories. The Rangers, with a record of 56-67, are struggling this season and currently sit fourth in the AL West. In their last outing, they fell to the Twins in a close contest, dropping the game 4-3, which highlighted their ongoing difficulties. Meanwhile, the Twins stand at 69-53, firmly in the playoff hunt and showcasing strong overall performance.

Nathan Eovaldi is set to take the mound for the Rangers. Despite a solid ERA of 3.75, he has faced challenges, allowing an average of 4.9 hits and 1.6 walks per game, which could be critical against a powerful Twins lineup. Eovaldi's ability to strike out 6.7 batters on average is a bright spot, but he'll need to minimize free passes to keep Minnesota's offense at bay.

David Festa counters for the Twins, and while his 5.20 ERA suggests struggles, his 3.79 xFIP indicates potential for improvement, suggesting he might have been unlucky in previous outings. Festa's performance will be pivotal against a Rangers offense that ranks 23rd in MLB, struggling to generate runs consistently.

THE BAT X projects the Rangers to score an average of 4.58 runs today, indicating they could have a slight edge offensively. The projections favor the Rangers as a bigger favorite than the current betting markets imply. With a solid bullpen ranking 7th in MLB, the Rangers may find strength in their relief pitching if they can keep the game close. As the teams battle it out in this pivotal series, fans can expect an intriguing matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

David Festa has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 11.8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Extreme groundball hitters like Matt Wallner are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Nathan Eovaldi.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected batting order today (.311 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit worse than their .325 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Nathan Eovaldi's high usage rate of his secondary pitches (62.1% this year) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers' bullpen profiles as the 7th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+17.55 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 54 games (+10.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• Christian Vazquez has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.30 Units / 48% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.76 vs Texas Rangers 4.58

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