Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays Pick & Prediction – 9/3/2024

• Date: September 3, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Festa - Twins
  • Jeffrey Springs - Rays

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on September 3, 2024, they find themselves in a crucial matchup for their respective standings. The Rays, currently 4 games under .500 at 67-70, have shown an average performance this season and need to make every game count. In contrast, the Twins are having a solid year, holding a record of 75-62 as they fight for postseason positioning.

These two teams faced off yesterday, with the Twins taking the win in a tight battle, a result that puts additional pressure on the Rays heading into this second game of the series. Tampa Bay's Jeffrey Springs is slated to take the mound. Springs, who has made 6 starts this season with a 1-2 record and a commendable ERA of 3.67, is considered an average pitcher according to advanced statistics. However, he’s projected to limit the Twins to 2.3 earned runs with an average of 5.3 innings pitched, which could be crucial against Minnesota’s potent offense.

Opposing Springs will be David Festa, who has struggled a bit with a 2-4 record and an ERA of 4.89. Despite his less-than-stellar performance this year, Festa's 3.38 xFIP suggests he could improve going forward. He’s projected to pitch only 4.7 innings, which could leave the Twins’ bullpen exposed.

At the plate, the Rays rank 25th in the league offensively, which is a stark contrast to the Twins, who boast the 8th-best offense in MLB. The Rays’ best hitter, Josh Lowe, has been hot recently, batting .391 with 9 hits over the last week. In contrast, Minnesota’s Jose Miranda has recorded a .412 average during the same span.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, bettors should watch for a tight contest, especially given the close moneylines for both teams. The Rays may find themselves with a slight edge, but they'll need to perform above their rankings to secure a much-needed victory.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

David Festa's high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (59.3% this year) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (19.3) provides evidence that Willi Castro has had some very poor luck this year with his 12.0 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Carlos Santana pulls many of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Jeffrey Springs's 89.3-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 5th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Christopher Morel has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jose Siri, Josh Lowe, Christopher Morel).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 80 of their last 131 games (+25.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 68 games (+11.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.05 Units / 28% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.81 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.06

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.