Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays Pick & Prediction – 9/2/2024

• Date: September 2, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins
  • Zack Littell - Rays

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On September 2, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Minnesota Twins at Tropicana Field for the first game of their series. Both teams have been hovering around the .500 mark, with the Rays sitting at 67-69, while the Twins boast a record of 74-62, giving them an above-average season. The magnitude of this matchup is heightened by the Twins' aspirations for the postseason, as they continue to fight for a better Wild Card position.

The Rays have struggled offensively, ranking 25th in MLB, and face a tough challenge against Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson, who is expected to offer a below-average performance based on projections. Meanwhile, Zack Littell will take the mound for Tampa Bay, sporting an ERA of 3.89 this year, indicating he's had some luck on his side. Littell projects to pitch 4.3 innings, allowing 1.9 earned runs with a below-average strikeout rate of 4.3, suggesting he may not go deep into the game.

In their last outings, the Rays have experienced mixed results, while the Twins come off a solid performance, inching closer to maintaining their playoff push. Tampa Bay's recent efforts have been buoyed by Yandy Díaz, who has recorded five hits and two home runs over the past week, boasting an impressive .417 batting average. For Minnesota, Ryan Jeffers has been a consistent contributor, but the team will need to capitalize on Littell's weaknesses, particularly his tendency to allow walks, to take control of the game.

With both bullpens in play, the Rays rank 3rd overall, giving them an edge late in games. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup, and with both teams currently even in moneyline odds at -110, expect a closely contested game.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson's 2187-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 15th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Matt Wallner has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 100.5-mph average to last year's 97.1-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Edouard Julien has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Zack Littell is projected to throw 69 pitches in today's matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 6th-least of the day.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Minnesota's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Josh Lowe, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christopher Morel, Josh Lowe, Jose Siri).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 72 of their last 119 games (+21.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 71 games (+10.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 36 games (+13.30 Units / 29% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.77 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.2

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