Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners Prediction For 6/28/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: June 28, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins face off on June 28, 2024, in an American League matchup at T-Mobile Park. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Mariners holding a 46-37 record and the Twins boasting a 45-36 mark. This game is also the first in the series between these two teams.

Logan Gilbert will take the mound for Seattle. Ranked as the 48th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gilbert has an impressive 2.93 ERA this year. His peripherals, such as a 3.44 SIERA, suggest he’s been a tad fortunate, but he remains a solid option. Gilbert projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.0 earned runs and striking out 6.0 batters.

For Minnesota, Bailey Ober will get the start. Ober ranks 41st among starting pitchers and, despite his 4.81 ERA, his 4.06 xFIP indicates he's been somewhat unlucky. Projections from the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, have Ober pitching around 5.0 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs, and striking out 5.6 hitters.

Offensively, the Twins have an edge with the 10th best lineup in MLB, featuring solid team metrics such as being 6th in home runs and 11th in batting average. On the other hand, the Mariners rank just 25th in offense, though they do have power, ranking 8th in team home runs. Over the last week, Byron Buxton has been a standout for the Twins, hitting .474 with 3 home runs, 9 hits, and a 1.605 OPS in just 5 games. For the Mariners, Ryan Bliss has been hot, sporting a .429 average and a 1.181 OPS over his last 4 games.

Bullpen strength could play a pivotal role late in the game. The Twins’ bullpen ranks 5th best, while the Mariners’ ranks a lowly 24th, potentially giving Minnesota an edge in tight situations.

Betting markets see this as a close contest with the Mariners’ moneyline at -130, implying a 54% win probability. The Twins' moneyline is set at +110, with a 46% implied win probability. The game's total runs are projected to be low, with a Game Total set at 7.0. While both teams' starting pitchers are capable, Seattle's strong bullpen could be a deciding factor. However, the edge in offensive firepower and bullpen quality leans slightly in favor of Minnesota.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Considering that flyball pitchers hold a substantial edge over flyball batters, Bailey Ober and his 40.6% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in today's outing squaring off against 3 opposing FB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Willi Castro has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (77% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Logan Gilbert has gone to his secondary pitches 9.9% more often this year (67.8%) than he did last year (57.9%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Luke Raley has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98.7-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 89-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher in today's matchup, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+13.80 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 45 games (+10.35 Units / 13% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.47 vs Seattle Mariners 3.73

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