Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres Pick For 8/21/2024

• Date: August 21, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins
  • Matt Waldron - Padres

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres host the Minnesota Twins on August 21, 2024, both teams find themselves in a competitive battle for playoff positioning. The Padres sit at 71-55, slightly ahead of the Twins, who hold a 70-55 record. This matchup, the third in the series, carries significant weight, particularly as both clubs are enjoying strong seasons.

In their most recent game, the Padres earned a comeback win over the Twins, and will look to follow up on that performance today. San Diego boasts the best team batting average in MLB this season and ranks 9th overall in offensive production. Their pitching staff has been bolstered by a bullpen that ranks 4th, a key factor in their success. However, starting pitcher Matt Waldron, who is projected to take the mound, has had a tumultuous season, with a 7-10 record and an average ERA of 4.29. Waldron's ability to limit hits will be critical; he’s projected to allow an alarming 5.0 hits on average today.

On the other side, the Twins counter with Simeon Woods Richardson, who has recorded a solid 3.77 ERA this season. However, his xFIP suggests he may not be as reliable going forward, indicating potential vulnerabilities. The Twins' offense, ranking 7th in the league, has been powered by Ryan Jeffers, who has shined recently, recording 4 RBIs and 2 home runs over the past week.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, oddsmakers project a closely contested affair. The Padres currently hold a moneyline of -125, implying a win probability of 53%. Given their offensive firepower and the strength of their bullpen, there’s reason to believe they could outperform those expectations today.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 6 opposite-handed bats in this matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Max Kepler is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Minnesota has not been good at making hard contact. If you look at the top 5% of their batted balls by exit velocity, their average (90.2 mph) ranks among the league's worst: #26 in the game this year.

• Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter's best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Among all starters, Matt Waldron's fastball velocity of 90 mph ranks in the 10th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Kyle Higashioka has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.5-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 88.7-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 46 games (+12.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+13.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+10.15 Units / 59% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.6 vs San Diego Padres 4.75

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