Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres Pick For 8/19/2024

• Date: August 19, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zebby Matthews - Twins
  • Michael King - Padres

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on August 19, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race, each sporting impressive records of 70-55 and 70-54, respectively. This interleague matchup marks the beginning of a series that could have significant implications for playoff positioning. The Padres currently hold a slight edge in the standings, bolstered by a strong performance from their offense, which ranks 8th best in MLB this season.

In their last game, the Padres fell short against the Colorado Rockies. Meanwhile, the Twins lost in extra innings to the Texas Rangers. With the stakes high, both teams will be eager to establish momentum.

On the mound, the Padres are set to start Michael King, who is enjoying a stellar season. With a Win/Loss record of 10-6 and an impressive ERA of 3.19, King ranks as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His ability to strike out batters—averaging 7.1 per game—will be crucial against a Twins lineup that, while ranked 6th in MLB, has shown vulnerability against quality pitching.

Zebby Matthews takes the hill for the Twins, having started just one game this season with a record of 1-0 and an ERA of 3.60. While he has potential, projections suggest he may struggle against the potent Padres offense, which leads the league in batting average and ranks 10th in home runs. The Padres’ excellent bullpen, rated 3rd in MLB, further enhances their chances of securing a win.

With the game total set at a low 7.0 runs, the Padres are favored with a moneyline of -155, indicating confidence in their ability to capitalize on their home-field advantage. Expect a tightly contested game, but the Padres’ combination of strong pitching and a powerful offense gives them the edge as they look to improve their playoff positioning.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Compared to the average hurler, Daniel Matthews has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -11.1 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Matt Wallner has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 101-mph average to last season's 97.1-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Minnesota has really struggled to hit the ball hard. If you look at the top 5% of their batted balls by exit velocity, their average (90.3 mph) ranks among the league's worst: #26 in MLB this year.

• Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter's best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

With 6 batters of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Michael King meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Despite posting a .375 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jurickson Profar has been very fortunate given the .053 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .322.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 58 games (+11.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 64 games (+11.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• Willi Castro has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+8.60 Units / 143% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.69 vs San Diego Padres 4.41

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