Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres Best Bet – 8/20/2024

• Date: August 20, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Martin Perez - Padres

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As fans gear up for the interleague matchup on August 20, 2024, at Petco Park, the San Diego Padres will host the Minnesota Twins with playoff implications looming for both sides. Currently, the Padres boast a record of 71-55, while the Twins closely trail with a 70-55 mark, highlighting the competitive nature of today’s game.

The Padres last took the field against the Twins in a tightly contested game that saw San Diego edge out a victory, fueling their confidence heading into this rematch. San Diego's Martin Perez is projected to start on the mound, though his year has been lackluster, reflected in his 3-5 record and an average ERA of 4.62. His expected ERA of 5.46 signals potential trouble against a strong lineup like Minnesota’s.

Bailey Ober, set to toe the rubber for the Twins, has been one of the more effective pitchers in the league with a 12-5 record and an impressive ERA of 3.49. His ability to navigate through lineups is bolstered by a high strikeout rate, which could be critical against a Padres offense that doesn't strike out often, ranking 1st in MLB in that category.

Offensively, the Padres rank 8th overall and lead MLB in batting average, while the Twins are not far behind at 7th. Both lineups are firing on all cylinders, especially with San Diego's David Peralta leading the way over the last week, showcasing a .389 batting average with 7 hits in his last 5 games. Conversely, Carlos Santana is making waves for Minnesota, contributing significantly with 6 RBIs in his past week.

Given the projections that favor the Padres' lineup against Ober’s strikeout prowess, this matchup promises to be a thrilling contest, with bettors watching closely as the game total is set at a low 7.5 runs. With both teams fighting for supremacy, the stakes have never been higher.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

The Minnesota Twins infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest out of every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jose Miranda has been lucky this year, compiling a .357 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .309 — a .048 difference.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Minnesota Twins bats jointly rank in the cellar of baseball this year (27th- overall) when it comes to their 90-mph average exit velocity on the top 5% of their highest exit velocity balls.

• Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter's best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Martin Perez is expected to tally an average of 4.1 strikeouts in this outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Jurickson Profar has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 8.1% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 29 games (+12.55 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 49 games (+9.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 47 games (+15.65 Units / 33% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.46 vs San Diego Padres 4.34

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