Minnesota Twins at Pittsburgh Pirates Pick For 6/7/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: June 7, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ryan - Twins
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

On June 7, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will face off against the Minnesota Twins at PNC Park. The Pirates will be the home team, while the Twins will be the away team in this Interleague matchup.

The Pirates have had a below-average season so far, with a record of 29-33. They will be looking to turn things around with Mitch Keller taking the mound as their starting pitcher. Keller, a right-handed pitcher, has started 12 games this year and holds a win-loss record of 7-3. With an ERA of 3.42, Keller has been performing well, although his peripheral indicators suggest that he may not sustain this level of success going forward.

On the other side, the Twins have had an above-average season, boasting a record of 33-29. Joe Ryan, a right-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Twins. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Ryan is ranked as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB. With a record of 4-4 and an ERA of 3.38, Ryan has been a strong contributor to the Twins' success this season.

With both teams having solid starting pitchers and the Twins having a slightly better offense, this game is expected to be a close one. The Pirates' bullpen ranks 10th best in MLB, while the Twins' bullpen ranks 6th best, adding to the competitiveness of the matchup.

Based on the current odds, the Pirates have an average implied team total of 3.90 runs, while the Twins have an average implied team total of 4.10 runs. The Game Total for today's game is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring.

In their last seven games, the Pirates' best hitter has been Rowdy Tellez, with impressive stats including a .429 batting average and a 1.038 OPS. On the other hand, Carlos Santana has been the Twins' best hitter in their last seven games, hitting .364 with a 1.326 OPS.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between two teams with different levels of success this season. The Pirates will look to overcome their offensive struggles and rely on their solid pitching, while the Twins aim to continue their above-average performance. With both teams having strengths and weaknesses, it will be an exciting game to watch.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan's fastball velocity has increased 1.6 mph this season (93.2 mph) over where it was last season (91.6 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

In today's game, Byron Buxton is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.8% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 4.7 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Bats such as Oneil Cruz with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Joe Ryan who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Nick Gonzales, Jack Suwinski).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 33 games (+8.15 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 44 games (+5.00 Units / 10% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+7.55 Units / 31% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.66 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.07

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