Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics Best Bet – 6/21/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: June 21, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Paddack - Twins
  • Joey Estes - Athletics

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to take on the Oakland Athletics at Oakland Coliseum on June 21, 2024, there is a stark contrast in the seasons these two teams are experiencing. The Twins, boasting a 41-34 record, are having an above-average year, while the Athletics, with a 28-49 record, are struggling significantly. This American League matchup promises to highlight the disparities between the two teams.

On the mound for the Athletics is right-hander Joey Estes, who has had a tough season with a 5.97 ERA over seven starts. Despite his struggles, his xFIP of 4.75, suggests some bad luck and potential for better performance. However, Estes is ranked just 266th among MLB starting pitchers, indicating he is one of the league's weaker starters. His projected performance includes 5.1 innings pitched, 2.6 earned runs, and 4.0 strikeouts, with his high walk rate and hit allowance being notable weaknesses.

The Twins will counter with Chris Paddack, who has been an above-average pitcher despite his 5.25 ERA through 14 starts. His xFIP of 3.92 suggests he has also been unlucky, and his #79 ranking among starting pitchers supports his potential for better outings. Paddack is expected to go 5.5 innings, allow 2.4 earned runs, and record 5.5 strikeouts, making him a solid option against a struggling Athletics lineup.

Offensively, the Athletics have been one of the league's worst units, ranking 27th in overall offense and 28th in team batting average. However, they do boast some power, ranking 5th in home runs. In contrast, the Twins have a more balanced attack, ranking 9th in overall offense and 7th in home runs, with a middle-of-the-pack batting average at 15th.

Both bullpens rank well, with the Athletics' bullpen being 9th best, slightly ahead of the Twins' 11th-ranked bullpen. The Athletics' bullpen strength might be crucial if Estes exits early, but the Twins' overall pitching and hitting advantages make them favorites.

Recent performances have seen JJ Bleday shine for the Athletics, hitting .409 with a 1.246 OPS over the past week. Meanwhile, Carlos Santana has been on fire for the Twins, batting .500 with a 1.535 OPS in the same period. Santana's recent hot streak could be pivotal in this matchup.

With a game total set at 8.0 runs and the Twins being -160 favorites, the implied team totals are 4.42 runs for the Twins and 3.58 runs for the Athletics. The Twins' stronger overall season performance and superior pitching matchup suggest they are rightly favored to win this series opener.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Chris Paddack’s fastball velocity over his last 3 GS (94.2 mph) has been quite a bit better than than his seasonal rate (92.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Byron Buxton has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.9-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.8-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Carlos Santana pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.2% — 94th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 10th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Joey Estes is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #30 HR venue among all major league parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tyler Soderstrom has been lucky this year, posting a .339 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .288 — a .051 disparity.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Oakland Athletics have 6 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Soderstrom, Lawrence Butler, Max Schuemann, Shea Langeliers, Zack Gelof, Brent Rooker).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+7.90 Units / 29% ROI)
• Tyler Soderstrom has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+17.10 Units / 171% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.46 vs Oakland Athletics 3.91

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