Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees Pick & Prediction – 6/6/2024

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: June 6, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On June 6, 2024, the New York Yankees will face off against the Minnesota Twins at Yankee Stadium. As the home team, the Yankees will have the advantage of playing on their familiar turf. This American League matchup marks the third game in the series between these two teams.

The Yankees have been having a fantastic season, boasting a record of 44-19. Currently at the top of their division, they have established themselves as one of the strongest teams in the league. On the other hand, the Twins have had an above-average season with a record of 33-28.

Both teams will be sending their talented right-handed pitchers to the mound. The Yankees will start Marcus Stroman, who has been solid this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Stroman is considered an average starting pitcher. He has started 12 games this year, with a win-loss record of 5-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.73.

In contrast, the Twins will rely on Pablo Lopez, who has been performing exceptionally well. Our advanced-stat Power Rankings rank Lopez as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB. With a record of 5-5 and an ERA of 4.84, Lopez's numbers may not be as impressive as Stroman's, but his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

Considering the projected performance of the pitchers, Stroman is expected to pitch around 5.7 innings and allow an average of 2.8 earned runs. He is projected to strike out 4.8 batters but allow 5.7 hits and 1.6 walks, which are not ideal. On the other hand, Lopez is projected to pitch around 5.4 innings and allow an average of 2.9 earned runs. He is projected to strike out 5.9 batters but allow 5.3 hits and 1.7 walks.

Offensively, the Yankees have been a powerhouse this season. They rank as the best offense in MLB, despite their low team batting average at 29th in the league. However, they compensate with their impressive team home run ranking at 8th. In contrast, the Twins have an average offense, ranking 16th in MLB. They have struggled with their team batting average, ranking 22nd, but have shown power with their 7th rank in team home runs.

When it comes to bullpens, the Twins have the advantage, ranking as the 6th best in MLB, while the Yankees rank 23rd. However, it's important to note that bullpens can be unpredictable, and previous rankings may not always reflect current performance.

In terms of betting odds, the Yankees are the favorites with a moneyline of -150, implying a 57% win probability. The Twins are the underdogs with a moneyline of +125, implying a 43% win probability. The Yankees also have a higher implied team total of 4.60 runs compared to the Twins' 3.90 runs.

Overall, the Yankees enter this game with a stronger overall record and offense. However, the Twins have the advantage in terms of starting pitching and bullpen. With both teams having their strengths, this game promises to be an exciting matchup between two competitive teams in the American League.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez's four-seam fastball rate has spiked by 5.1% from last year to this one (34.5% to 39.6%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

New York's 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Byron Buxton, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

In today's game, Byron Buxton is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.8% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Marcus Stroman's 89.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.3-mph drop off from last year's 90.9-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Aaron Judge's 26.9% Barrel% (a reliable standard to measure power) grades out in the 100th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 2nd-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the New York Yankees.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 32 games (+18.05 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.64 Units / 14% ROI)
• Alex Kirilloff has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+9.90 Units / 32% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.66 vs New York Yankees 4.98

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