Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees Best Bet – 6/4/2024

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 4, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Luis Gil - Yankees

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the New York Yankees will be hosting the Minnesota Twins at Yankee Stadium on June 4, 2024. The Yankees, with an impressive record of 42-19 this season, are having a great year and are considered the home team. On the other hand, the Twins, with a solid record of 33-26, are having a good season and will be the away team.

The starting pitchers for this game are projected to be Luis Gil for the Yankees and Bailey Ober for the Twins. Both pitchers are right-handed and have shown promise this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Luis Gil is ranked as the 34th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him a good asset for the Yankees. Bailey Ober, ranked 65th, is also above average.

Luis Gil has started 11 games this year, boasting an impressive win/loss record of 7-1 and an ERA of 1.99, which is excellent. However, his 3.47 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could perform worse in the future. On the other hand, Bailey Ober has started 11 games as well, with a win/loss record of 5-3 and an ERA of 4.89, which is below average. His 3.94 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could perform better going forward.

In terms of offense, the Yankees rank as the best team in MLB this season. However, their team batting average is only 29th in the league. They excel in home runs, ranking 8th, but struggle in stolen bases, ranking 20th. The Twins, on the other hand, have an average ranking of 14th for their offense. Their team batting average is 22nd, but they excel in home runs, ranking 7th, and struggle in stolen bases, ranking 24th.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Yankees rank 23rd, while the Twins rank as the 5th best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could give the Twins an advantage late in the game.

Based on the current odds, the Yankees are favored to win with a moneyline of -165 and an implied win probability of 60%. The Twins, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +145 and an implied win probability of 40%.

With Luis Gil's high-strikeout ability facing the Twins' high-strikeout offense, the Yankees may have an advantage. However, it's important to note that projections are just estimates and anything can happen in baseball.

The game total for this matchup is set at 8.0 runs, which is considered average. The Yankees have a high implied team total of 4.46 runs, while the Twins have a lower implied team total of 3.54 runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #7 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Byron Buxton has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (92% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

In today's matchup, Byron Buxton is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.9% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Luis Gil's high utilization percentage of his fastball (55.9% this year) is likely weakening his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Alex Verdugo's footspeed has declined this season. His 27.26 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.5 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The New York Yankees projected offense projects as the 2nd-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 30 games (+18.35 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.45 Units / 38% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 28 games (+15.45 Units / 25% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.1 vs New York Yankees 5

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