Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals Pick For 9/7/2024

• Date: September 7, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Alec Marsh - Royals

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals host the Minnesota Twins on September 7, 2024, both teams are enjoying above-average seasons, with the Royals holding a record of 77-65 and the Twins at 76-65. The stakes are high in this American League Central matchup, especially as the Royals recently secured a solid victory in their last game.

On the mound, the Royals are set to start Alec Marsh, who has had a challenging season, going 7-8 with a 4.70 ERA. Marsh, currently ranked as the 237th best starting pitcher in MLB, is projected to pitch only 4.7 innings today, which raises concerns about his effectiveness. In contrast, the Twins will counter with Bailey Ober, who has been much more effective this year, boasting a 12-6 record and a 3.95 ERA, placing him as the 39th best starting pitcher. Ober's ability to strike out batters (26.3 K%) could be a key factor, especially against a Royals offense that ranks as the 2nd least striking out team in MLB.

While the Royals' offense ranks 12th overall, they have struggled with power, sitting 19th in home runs. However, they do excel in other areas, ranking 8th in stolen bases. On the other hand, the Twins' offense ranks 8th best overall, including a solid 7th in batting average.

Despite being underdogs with a moneyline of +120 and an implied team total of 3.73 runs, the Royals might find an advantage in their matchup against Ober, who could be challenged by their low-strikeout offense. With today's game total set at 8.0 runs, bettors should keep an eye on how these dynamics unfold as the two teams clash in what promises to be an intriguing contest.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Among all the teams today, the worst infield defense is that of the Minnesota Twins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Ryan Jeffers has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Minnesota Twins have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Edouard Julien, Trevor Larnach, DaShawn Keirsey, Matt Wallner).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Marsh to throw 82 pitches today (5th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Isbel stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Kansas City's 89.5-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in MLB: #4 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games at home (+7.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 90 games (+6.55 Units / 7% ROI)
• Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.40 Units / 34% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.84 vs Kansas City Royals 4.37

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