Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros Prediction For 6/2/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 2, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Simeon Woods Richard - Twins
  • Hunter Brown - Astros

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League matchup at Minute Maid Park, the Houston Astros will take on the Minnesota Twins on June 2, 2024. The Astros, who currently hold a record of 26-33, have been struggling this season, while the Twins have been performing strongly with a record of 32-26.

The Astros will have home-field advantage for this game, hoping to turn their season around. They will be relying on their projected starting pitcher, Hunter Brown, a right-handed pitcher. Despite his team's poor record, Brown has shown promise individually, ranking as the #89 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. His ERA of 6.39 this season may be misleading, as his 3.80 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Brown has started 10 games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-5.

On the other side, the Twins will send Simeon Woods Richard to the mound. Woods Richard is also a right-handed pitcher but has been struggling this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, he is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB. Despite his solid ERA of 2.70, his 4.34 xFIP indicates that he has been lucky and may regress in future performances. Woods Richard has started 8 games this year, boasting a 2-0 record.

Offensively, the Astros have been performing well, ranking as the 5th best offense in MLB. They have displayed power, ranking 9th in team home runs, and have been average in team batting average, ranking 14th. The Twins, on the other hand, have an average offense, ranking 12th in MLB. They have shown power as well, ranking 7th in team home runs, but their team batting average ranks 22nd.

With the Astros having the advantage of a strong offense and being the home team, they are the betting favorites with a current moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. The Twins, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +115 and an implied win probability of 44%. The Game Total for this matchup is set at 8.5 runs, which is considered average.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson turned in a great performance in his last GS and allowed 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Byron Buxton is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Minnesota Twins have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Byron Buxton, Edouard Julien, Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Recording 13.3 outs per game per started this year on average, Hunter Brown places in the 10th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Yordan Alvarez's quickness has dropped off this year. His 25.86 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.38 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Houston Astros hitters jointly rank among the worst in MLB since the start of last season ( 8th-worst) in regard to their 88.6-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 49 games (+7.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+5.00 Units / 20% ROI)
• Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 26 games (+14.00 Units / 42% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.37 vs Houston Astros 5.08

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.