Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers Prediction For 7/28/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: July 28, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Alex Faedo - Tigers

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers will host the Minnesota Twins on July 28, 2024, at Comerica Park for the third game of their series. This American League Central showdown features the Twins, who are having a good season with a 57-46 record, against the Tigers, who are struggling with mediocrity at 52-54. As of now, the Twins hold a significant edge in the standings, making this a critical game for both teams as the season progresses.

The Tigers will send Alex Faedo to the mound. Faedo, a right-handed pitcher, has been relegated to the bullpen for most of the season, making zero starts but appearing in 31 games. Despite his decent 3.47 ERA, advanced metrics like his 3.98 xFIP suggest he’s been somewhat fortunate and might regress. His projections for today—including 3.6 innings pitched and 2.1 earned runs allowed—are not promising.

On the other side, the Twins will counter with Bailey Ober, another right-hander who has been reliable throughout the season with a 9-5 record and a 4.04 ERA. Though his ERA suggests he’s been merely above average, Ober's advanced-stat Power Ranking as the 47th best starting pitcher underscores his effectiveness. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs today, giving the Twins an edge on the mound.

Offensively, the Twins boast a robust lineup ranked 6th in MLB, including a 7th place in team batting average and 8th in home runs. On the flip side, the Tigers' offense is ranked a lowly 25th, struggling particularly in batting average at 23rd and stolen bases at 26th.

The bullpen advantage slightly favors the Tigers, who rank 4th compared to the Twins' 6th. However, this marginal difference may not compensate for the disparity in starting pitching and offensive prowess.

Colt Keith has been a bright spot for the Tigers over the past week, hitting .375 with 2 home runs and a 1.173 OPS. For the Twins, Matt Wallner has been even more impressive, batting .400 with 2 home runs and a stunning 1.638 OPS over his last 4 games.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Tigers have a 45% win probability today, which is 7% higher than the betting market suggests. This indicates potential value in betting on Detroit, despite their status as significant underdogs with a +155 moneyline.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Matt Wallner's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 95.5-mph now compared to just 91.9-mph then.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Alex Faedo will "start" for Detroit Tigers in today's matchup but will fill the role of an opener and may not stay on the mound for more than a couple frames.

• Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.

Extreme groundball bats like Javier Baez are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Bailey Ober.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Detroit Tigers projected offense grades out as the 2nd-weakest on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 91 games (+12.10 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.45 Units / 31% ROI)
• Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+8.30 Units / 22% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.37 vs Detroit Tigers 3.91

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