Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers Pick & Prediction – 4/12/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Overview

• Date: April 12, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
• Run Line: Twins 1.5 -210, Tigers -1.5 180
• Money Line: Twins 110, Tigers -130
• Total (Over/Under):7 -105

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 46%
• Detroit Tigers - 54%

Projected Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 45.81%
• Detroit Tigers - 54.19%

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Game Preview & Prediction

In an American League Central matchup, the Detroit Tigers will host the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park on April 12, 2024. The Tigers, who currently hold a record of 7-4, are having a great season so far, while the Twins are struggling with a 4-6 record.

On the mound, the Tigers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Tarik Skubal, who has been impressive this season. Skubal is currently ranked as the #3 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. He has started two games this year, with a 1-0 record and an excellent 2.92 ERA. Despite his strong performance, Skubal's 1.70 xERA suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform even better going forward.

Opposing Skubal will be the Twins' right-handed pitcher, Pablo Lopez. Lopez is ranked as the #12 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings. He has also started two games this season, with a 1-1 record and an impressive 2.84 ERA. However, his 3.74 xFIP indicates that he has been lucky and may regress in future outings.

The Tigers offense has struggled this season, ranking as the #26 best in MLB. They have the #27 team batting average and #27 team home runs, indicating a lack of power. In contrast, the Twins offense ranks as the #28 best in MLB, but they excel in the home run department, ranking #7 in the league.

With Skubal's high-strikeout ability (32.6 K%) facing the strikeout-prone Twins offense (the team with the most strikeouts in MLB), the Tigers' pitcher may have an advantage in this matchup. On the other hand, Lopez's high-flyball tendencies (37 FB%) may pose a challenge for the Tigers' power-limited offense.

According to the current odds, the Tigers are favored to win this game with a moneyline set at -125, giving them a 53% implied win probability. The Twins, with a +105 moneyline, have a 47% implied win probability. It is expected to be a close game, as both teams have relatively low implied team totals of 3.62 runs for the Tigers and 3.38 runs for the Twins.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez projects as the 20th-best SP in MLB right now when it comes to his strikeout talent, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 5th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Out of all starters, Tarik Skubal's fastball velocity of 95 mph grades out in the 86th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Colt Keith has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 148 games (+11.30 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 52 games (+11.80 Units / 19% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins 3.83 vs Detroit Tigers 3.92

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