Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers Best Bet – 7/27/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: July 27, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ryan - Twins
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Detroit Tigers gear up to face the Minnesota Twins on July 27, 2024, at Comerica Park, both teams are looking to make a statement in this American League Central matchup. The Tigers, sitting at 51-54, are having an average season, while the Twins, with a 57-45 record, are enjoying a solid campaign.

Detroit will send their ace, Tarik Skubal, to the mound. Skubal has been phenomenal this season, boasting an 11-3 record with an elite ERA of 2.34. According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, Skubal is rated as the best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. His dominance has been evident, and he's projected to continue this trend, averaging 5.8 innings, 2.0 earned runs, and 6.8 strikeouts per game.

The Twins counter with Joe Ryan, who holds a respectable 6-6 record and a 3.65 ERA. Ryan's peripheral stats, notably his 2.95 xERA, suggest he's been a bit unlucky and could see improved performances moving forward. THE BAT X projects him to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 6.3 batters.

Offensively, the Tigers have struggled, ranking 25th in overall offense and 23rd in batting average. Their power numbers are slightly better, sitting at 18th in home runs. Recently, Jake Rogers has been a bright spot, hitting .267 with a .917 OPS over the last week.

In contrast, the Twins boast a potent lineup, ranking 6th in overall offense and 7th in batting average. Their power is also notable, with the team ranking 8th in home runs. Matt Wallner has been particularly hot, posting a .333 batting average and a 1.383 OPS over the past week.

Both bullpens are solid, with the Tigers ranked 13th and the Twins 4th in the Power Rankings. This could be crucial in what is expected to be a tightly contested game, as indicated by the game total of 7.0 runs.

With the Tigers currently favored at -120, the implied win probability stands at 52%. Given Detroit's strong starting pitcher and home-field advantage, they are poised to edge out the Twins in this crucial game.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #25 HR venue in the league in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Max Kepler is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal's higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (53.2 vs. 48.1% last year) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Javier Baez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 91.5-mph mark last season has fallen off to 88.6-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The 3rd-worst projected batting order of the day in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Detroit Tigers.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 87 games (+12.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games (+9.35 Units / 31% ROI)
• Colt Keith has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 22% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.7 vs Detroit Tigers 3.67

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