Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians Prediction For 9/17/2024

• Date: September 17, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zebby Matthews - Twins
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face the Minnesota Twins on September 17, 2024, playoff implications loom large, especially for the Guardians, who currently sit at 87-64. They are firmly in the hunt for a postseason spot, while the Twins, with a 79-71 record, are battling for consistency but are not in contention for a division title.

In their last game, the Guardians showcased their potential by securing a decisive victory, which has helped them maintain momentum as they look to solidify their playoff position. The Twins, meanwhile, have shown flashes of brilliance but are still striving for the consistency needed to contend.

On the mound, Gavin Williams is projected to start for the Guardians. Despite a less-than-stellar 3-9 record and a 5.23 ERA this season, he ranks as the 80th best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky. His 4.20 xFIP indicates potential for improvement, and he projects to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs and striking out 6.1 batters, which could bode well against the Twins' offense.

Zebby Matthews will take the hill for Minnesota, boasting an average projection but struggling with a 7.11 ERA this season. His 4.14 xFIP suggests he, too, has faced some misfortune, yet he projects to allow 2.5 earned runs over the same 5.1 innings, with significantly fewer strikeouts at 3.8.

From an offensive standpoint, the Guardians rank 17th overall but excel in stolen bases, which could prove advantageous. Conversely, the Twins are 10th in overall offensive rankings, giving them a solid edge. Betting markets indicate a close contest, with the Guardians favored at -125 and an implied team total of 4.40 runs, while the Twins sit at +105 with an average total of 4.10 runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

The Cleveland Guardians have 8 hitters in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zebby Matthews in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Carlos Correa has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (99% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Gavin Williams's 96.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.1-mph spike from last season's 95-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Brayan Rocchio's average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 84.7-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 79.8-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 86 of their last 150 games (+11.22 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 82 games (+12.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.60 Units / 41% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.23 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.6

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