Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians Pick & Prediction – 9/19/2024

• Date: September 19, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins
  • Joey Cantillo - Guardians

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians host the Minnesota Twins on September 19, 2024, both teams are locked in a crucial American League Central matchup with postseason implications on the line. The Guardians are enjoying a strong season with an 88-65 record, while the Twins, at 80-72, are also performing above average. The Guardians hold a slight edge in the standings, bringing an extra layer of intensity to this face-off at Progressive Field.

In terms of pitching matchups, the Guardians will send Joey Cantillo to the mound. Despite his 2-3 record and a below-average 4.99 ERA, Cantillo's 3.61 xFIP suggests some bad luck and anticipates improved performance. Contrastingly, Twins' Simeon Woods Richardson brings a 5-5 record with a more favorable 4.08 ERA, though his higher xFIP of 4.60 hints at potential regression on the horizon. Cantillo has the potential to outshine his rival, especially with the Guardians' bullpen ranked 4th in effectiveness compared to the Twins' 21st.

Offensively, the match presents an intriguing clash. Cleveland's lineup is ranked 17th best overall, with notable power from their 13th-ranked home run total, while their running game excels at 5th in stolen bases. Minnesota steps up with the 11th-ranked offense, including a strong 8th place in team batting average, though they struggle with stolen bases, languishing in 29th place.

With the Guardians projected to have a 55% win probability, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, this matchup has them as slight favorites. The betting markets, however, suggest an evenly matched contest with an implied probability of 50% for both teams. This discrepancy implies potential value in backing the Guardians, amplified by the consistency of Kyle Manzardo, who has notably contributed over the past week. Expect a competitive game as both teams vie for crucial divisional bragging rights and a step closer to postseason glory.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson's 2186-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 16th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jose Miranda has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Minnesota Twins (20.2 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone group of hitters of the day.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Joey Cantillo has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Will Brennan's average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 86.2-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 78.1-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen projects as the 4th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 88 games (+14.00 Units / 14% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+7.15 Units / 22% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.43 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.7

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