Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians Best Bet – 9/16/2024

• Date: September 16, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins
  • Matthew Boyd - Guardians

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on September 16, 2024, both teams find themselves in the thick of a competitive stretch. The Guardians currently sit at 86-64, enjoying a solid season and holding a firm grip on a playoff position. Meanwhile, the Twins, with a record of 79-70, are having an above-average campaign, but their path to the postseason is a bit more tenuous.

This matchup marks the first game in the series, and both teams are looking to gain an early advantage. The Guardians are projected to start left-handed pitcher Matthew Boyd, who has had a commendable season with a 2-1 record and an impressive 2.18 ERA. Boyd's 3.84 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, but his ability to limit runs will be crucial against a Twins offense that ranks 11th in the league. Boyd projects to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs and striking out 5.7 batters on average.

On the other side, the Twins will send Pablo Lopez to the mound. Lopez's performance will be pivotal, especially given that the Guardians' offense, while average overall, has struggled with a 22nd ranking in team batting average. The Guardians do have a strong bullpen, ranked 5th in MLB, which could play a significant role in the later innings.

Cleveland's best hitter over the last week has been David Fry, who has shown some pop with a home run and a .300 batting average. In contrast, Kyle Farmer has been the Twins' standout, boasting a .400 batting average and two home runs in his last five games. With both teams displaying offensive strengths and weaknesses, this game promises to be tightly contested, reflected in the betting lines that set both teams at a moneyline of -110. The Game Total is currently set at 8.0 runs, indicating expectations for a close matchup.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Out of all SPs, Pablo Lopez's fastball spin rate of 2209 rpm is in the 21st percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

When it comes to his home runs, Willi Castro has had some very poor luck this year. His 11.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.8.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Minnesota Twins bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Matthew Boyd has averaged 16.5 outs per start this year, checking in at the 75th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

In the past week's worth of games, Jose Ramirez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 78 games (+13.50 Units / 16% ROI)
• Matt Wallner has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 39 games (+10.15 Units / 26% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.78 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.55

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