Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs Pick & Prediction – 8/7/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: August 7, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ryan - Twins
  • Javier Assad - Cubs

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Minnesota Twins at Wrigley Field on August 7, 2024, both teams are looking to build momentum in this interleague matchup. The Cubs, currently sitting at 56-60, have been struggling this season and are projected to start Javier Assad, who has a solid 3.19 ERA but ranks as the 172nd best starting pitcher in MLB. This suggests that while Assad has been effective, he has had some fortunate outings that may not hold up moving forward. In contrast, the Twins boast a 63-49 record and are in playoff contention, with Joe Ryan set to take the mound. Ryan, the 20th best pitcher according to advanced metrics, has a 3.59 ERA and could be poised for a better performance given his xERA of 2.87.

In their last game, the Cubs faced off against the Twins, with the Cubs picking up a win at home in that contest. The projections for this game indicate a low-scoring affair, with a game total of just 7.0 runs, which aligns with the Cubs' low implied team total of 3.23 runs.

Despite their underdog status, the Cubs may find value for bettors. The projections suggest that they could score slightly more runs than expected, averaging 3.32, indicating a potential for a close game. With Mike Tauchman leading the Cubs offensively over the last week, he may provide the spark the Cubs need against Ryan, who is known for his low walk rate. The matchup certainly shapes up to be intriguing, especially given the Twins' strong overall performance this season.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan's four-seamer rate has decreased by 8.5% from last year to this one (56.9% to 48.4%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Willi Castro is penciled in 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Minnesota Twins bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Out of all starters, Javier Assad's fastball spin rate of 2039 rpm grades out in the 9th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cody Bellinger stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (45.9% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 108 games (+9.75 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 52 games (+13.45 Units / 24% ROI)
• Michael Busch has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+8.25 Units / 26% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.76 vs Chicago Cubs 3.22

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