Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs Pick & Prediction – 8/6/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: August 6, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs will host the Minnesota Twins at Wrigley Field for the second game of their interleague series on August 6, 2024. The Cubs are struggling this season with a record of 55-60, while the Twins are enjoying a solid campaign at 63-48, ranking 5th in MLB in offensive performance. This matchup is crucial for the Cubs as they look to bounce back after a disappointing 3-0 loss to the Twins just yesterday.

On the mound, Cubs' left-hander Shota Imanaga is projected to start. Despite having a solid Win/Loss record of 8-2 and an impressive ERA of 3.09, advanced stats suggest he may have been a bit lucky this season, as indicated by his xFIP of 3.76. Imanaga's projected performance today includes allowing an average of 1.9 earned runs over 6.2 innings, which is elite. However, he also has concerning projections for hits and walks allowed, which could be problematic against a potent Twins lineup.

Opposing him is Pablo Lopez, a right-hander with a record of 10-7 and an average ERA of 4.65. Lopez has been somewhat unlucky this year, as his xFIP is significantly lower at 3.23, indicating he could improve moving forward. His recent start was solid, allowing only 2 earned runs over 6 innings, which bodes well for his performance today.

Betting markets have set the moneyline at -110 for both teams, reflecting expectations of a close contest. Interestingly, while projections indicate the Cubs have a slight edge with a 53% win probability, their implied total of 2.75 runs suggests a low-scoring affair. With both offenses struggling to generate consistent runs, it will be fascinating to see if either team can break through in this critical matchup.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Out of all SPs, Pablo Lopez's fastball spin rate of 2210 rpm is in the 24th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme groundball hitters like Byron Buxton are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen profiles as the 9th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Shota Imanaga has averaged 17.4 outs per start this year, placing in the 81st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Over the past 14 days, Isaac Paredes's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.1% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (45.8% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+10.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games (+10.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.50 Units / 49% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 2.87 vs Chicago Cubs 2.76

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.