Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox Pick & Prediction – 9/20/2024

• Date: September 20, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Festa - Twins
  • Richard Fitts - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Minnesota Twins at Fenway Park on September 20, 2024, both teams are navigating different trajectories this season. The Red Sox, with a record of 76-77, are having an average season, while the Twins, at 80-73, are enjoying an above-average campaign. This American League matchup could have implications for the Twins' playoff aspirations, as they are still in contention for a postseason spot.

On the mound, Boston will start Richard Fitts, a right-hander who has shown some statistical anomalies this season. Despite a stellar 0.00 ERA over two starts, his 5.68 xFIP suggests he's been fortunate and could face regression. Fitts's projected performance is less than impressive, with expectations of 4.9 innings pitched and 3.7 strikeouts, both considered subpar.

The Twins counter with David Festa, another right-hander, who has had a tough luck season. His 5.07 ERA belies a more promising 3.57 xFIP, indicating potential for better outings ahead. Festa has a slight edge with his strikeout ability, facing a Red Sox lineup that ranks 3rd in strikeouts in MLB. Despite this, Festa's projections are modest, with an anticipated 4.3 innings and 4.9 strikeouts.

Offensively, Boston boasts the 7th-best lineup, excelling in batting average and home runs. Trevor Story has been a standout hitter recently, with a .350 average and a 1.031 OPS over the last week. The Twins' offense, ranked 10th, is also solid but struggles on the basepaths with the 29th rank in stolen bases. Carlos Correa has been hot for Minnesota, hitting .385 with a 1.068 OPS in his last four games.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Red Sox hold a 57% win probability, suggesting potential value for bettors favoring Boston, as the market sees this as an even matchup with both teams at -110. With both teams projected to score over 4.5 runs, expect a high-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. David Festa must realize this, because he has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 59.9% of the time, checking in at the 78th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Trevor Larnach can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Minnesota Twins have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Edouard Julien).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

In his last game started, Richard Fitts performed well and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Connor Wong's true offensive ability to be a .295, implying that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .039 gap between that figure and his actual .334 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The 9.1% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox makes them the #4 team in the league this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 29 games (+10.95 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 70 games (+8.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Connor Wong has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.50 Units / 25% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.75 vs Boston Red Sox 4.69

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