Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox Pick For 9/21/2024

• Date: September 21, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Minnesota Twins at Fenway Park on September 21, 2024, fans and bettors alike can anticipate an intriguing matchup. The Twins, boasting an 81-73 record, are having an above-average season and are looking to maintain their momentum. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, with a 76-78 record, are navigating an average season.

The Red Sox are set to send Kutter Crawford to the mound. Crawford, ranked as the 75th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, brings an above-average ERA of 4.19 to the game, though his 4.74 FIP suggests he might be due for some regression. Crawford's tendency to allow hits and walks could be a concern as he faces a solid Twins lineup.

Opposite Crawford, Pablo Lopez takes the hill for the Twins. Ranked as the 15th best pitcher in MLB, Lopez has a 3.84 ERA, and his 3.32 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit unlucky this season. Lopez's ability to strike out batters at a good rate could be crucial against a potent Boston offense that ranks 7th in MLB in offensive production.

Offensively, Boston's lineup ranks 8th in home runs and stolen bases, showcasing a balanced attack. The Twins, meanwhile, rank 10th overall but struggle with stolen bases, ranking 29th. Both teams feature hot hitters, with Trevor Story hitting .350 with a .985 OPS over the past week for Boston and Carlos Correa batting .389 with a 1.022 OPS for Minnesota.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects a slight edge for the Red Sox, giving them a 53% win probability compared to the betting market's implied 45%. With a close game on tap, Boston might offer value for those looking for an edge.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Compared to the average hurler, Pablo Lopez has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 4.1 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Edouard Julien is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.2% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Kutter Crawford has utilized his curveball 5.1% less often this year (7%) than he did last season (12.1%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Tyler O'Neill has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.1-mph average to last season's 92.8-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Boston Red Sox have 5 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Wong, Wilyer Abreu, Trevor Story, Tyler O'Neill, Triston Casas).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 29 games (+13.00 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 92 games (+9.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Triston Casas has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+8.50 Units / 13% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.25 vs Boston Red Sox 4.01

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