Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles Pick & Prediction – 4/17/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles Overview

• Date: April 17, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins
  • Tyler Wells - Orioles
• Run Line: Twins -1.5 140, Orioles 1.5 -165
• Money Line: Twins -120, Orioles 100
• Total (Over/Under):8 100

Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 52%
• Baltimore Orioles - 48%

Projected Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 42.23%
• Baltimore Orioles - 57.77%

Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles Game Preview & Prediction

In an American League matchup on April 17, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Minnesota Twins at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles, with a season record of 11-6, are having a great season so far, while the Twins have struggled with a 6-10 record.

The Orioles are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tyler Wells, who has started three games this year. Although Wells has a win/loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 5.87, his 4.29 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Wells is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs and striking out 6.0 batters. However, he has struggled with allowing hits and walks, with an average of 4.5 hits and 1.5 walks per game.

On the other side, the Twins will counter with right-handed pitcher Pablo Lopez. Lopez has also started three games this season, with a win/loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 4.86. Similar to Wells, his 3.60 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is expected to perform better in future outings. Lopez is projected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.7 batters. However, he has struggled with hits and walks, giving up an average of 5.4 hits and 1.7 walks per game.

The Orioles have been strong offensively this season, ranking as the 9th best team in MLB. Their offense has been well-rounded, ranking 14th in team batting average, 17th in home runs, and 17th in stolen bases. In contrast, the Twins offense has struggled, ranking as the 26th best team in MLB. They have particularly struggled with team batting average, ranking 22nd, but have shown some power with a 7th place ranking in home runs.

In terms of the betting market, the Orioles and the Twins are evenly matched, with both teams having a moneyline set at -110 and an implied win probability of 50%. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for the combined score.

Considering the projected performance of the starting pitchers and the offensive rankings, the Orioles may have an advantage in this game. Wells, a low-strikeout pitcher, will face a high-strikeout Twins offense, which could work in his favor. However, the Twins' power hitting could pose a challenge for Wells.

All in all, this game promises to be an intriguing matchup between two teams with different strengths and weaknesses. With the Orioles having a better record and a more well-rounded offense, they may have the edge in this contest.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Baltimore's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Byron Buxton, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Tyler Wells is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #25 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cedric Mullins II has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (93% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 85 of their last 144 games (+22.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games (+11.80 Units / 17% ROI)

Twins vs Orioles Prediction: Twins 3.78 - Orioles 4.19

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