Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles Pick & Prediction – 4/15/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles Overview

• Date: April 15, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Louie Varland - Twins
  • Cole Irvin - Orioles
• Run Line: Twins 1.5 -150, Orioles -1.5 130
• Money Line: Twins 135, Orioles -155
• Total (Over/Under):9 100

Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 41%
• Baltimore Orioles - 59%

Projected Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 39.7%
• Baltimore Orioles - 60.3%

Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles Game Preview & Prediction

The Orioles are having a great season so far, with a record of 9-6. On the other hand, the Twins are struggling with a record of 6-8. Both teams will be looking to secure a win in this American League matchup.

The Orioles are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cole Irvin, who has started two games this year. Although Irvin has a win-loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 8.10, his 5.52 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Irvin is a low-strikeout pitcher, but he will benefit from facing a high-strikeout Twins offense, which ranks first in the MLB in strikeouts.

On the other side, the Twins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Louie Varland. Varland has also started two games this year, with a win-loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 9.00. However, his 3.99 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could improve in future outings.

The Orioles offense ranks as the 18th best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average and home run ranking. The Twins offense, on the other hand, ranks 26th in MLB, although they have a good ranking in team home runs.

Based on the current odds, the Orioles are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 58%. The Twins are the underdogs with a moneyline of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

This year, Louie Varland has introduced a new pitch to his repertoire (a curveball), using it on 18.3% of his pitches.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Baltimore's 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Byron Buxton, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.7% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Ryan Mountcastle's 12% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) ranks in the 81st percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Projected catcher Adley Rutschman profiles as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Twins vs Orioles Prediction: Twins 4.02 - Orioles 4.74

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