Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks Pick & Prediction – 6/27/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: June 27, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Festa - Twins
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Minnesota Twins at Chase Field on June 27, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. Coming off an 8-3 loss to the Twins just yesterday, the D-Backs will look to bounce back and avoid a series sweep. The Diamondbacks are having an average season with a 39-41 record, while the Twins are faring better with a 44-36 record.

Arizona's offense has been a bright spot, ranking 7th best in MLB and 8th in team batting average. However, their bullpen has struggled, ranking 26th. On the other hand, the Twins boast the 10th best offense with a notable 6th ranking in home runs. Their bullpen is solid, ranking 7th, which could be a key factor in this game.

Jordan Montgomery will take the mound for the D-Backs. Montgomery, a left-handed pitcher, has had a rough season with a 6.00 ERA but has shown signs of potential improvement with a 4.53 xFIP. He’s coming off a decent outing on June 21, where he pitched 6 innings, allowing 2 earned runs with 5 strikeouts. Despite his struggles, projections suggest he’s been unlucky and might perform better going forward.

For the Twins, right-hander David Festa will start. Festa has been above average this season, ranking as the 83rd best starting pitcher in MLB. He projects to allow 2.3 earned runs over 4.3 innings, which is below average. However, his ability to limit damage could be crucial for the Twins.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects a close game with the Twins having a slight edge with a 51% win probability, compared to the D-Backs' 49%. The betting markets also expect a tight contest, with the D-Backs having a slight implied win probability of 54%.

The Twins' offense, powered by Willi Castro and a strong recent performance from Jose Miranda, who has a .450 batting average and 1.342 OPS over the last week, could tip the scales. Meanwhile, the D-Backs will rely on Ketel Marte and recent hot hitter Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who has a .350 batting average and .933 OPS over the last week.

With both teams projected to score over 4 runs, fans can expect an exciting, high-scoring affair. The Twins' superior bullpen and Festa's steady performance might just give them the edge to clinch this series finale.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

The Minnesota Twins outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest among every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Royce Lewis ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Jordan Montgomery will give up an average of 3.05 earned runs today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Eugenio Suarez is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Minnesota (#3-best of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+6.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• Byron Buxton has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+6.30 Units / 158% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 5 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.67

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