Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks Pick For 6/26/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: June 26, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Simeon Woods Richard - Twins
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on June 26, 2024, at Chase Field, fans can expect a competitive matchup. The Diamondbacks, with a 39-40 record, are having an average season, while the Twins, at 43-36, are performing above average. This interleague game is the second in the series between these clubs.

On the mound for the Diamondbacks will be Ryne Nelson, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled this season with a 5.18 ERA and a 5-5 record. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Nelson's 4.53 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and might see improvement. However, his projections for today aren't promising: 5.3 innings pitched, 3.1 earned runs, 3.8 strikeouts, 5.8 hits, and 1.4 walks allowed on average.

The Twins will counter with Simeon Woods Richard, another right-hander. Despite his impressive 3.26 ERA and 2-1 record, projections suggest he has been fortunate, with a 4.22 xFIP indicating potential regression. Today's projections are also underwhelming: 4.8 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs, 3.9 strikeouts, 5.1 hits, and 1.8 walks.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks have the edge, ranking 7th in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. They also sit 8th in team batting average. Their power and speed are average, ranking 18th in both home runs and stolen bases. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been hot over the last week, hitting .471 with a 1.118 OPS in four games.

The Twins, ranked 10th offensively, boast the 6th-best home run tally, but their team batting average is 12th, and they struggle with stolen bases, ranking 22nd. Royce Lewis has been their standout player recently, hitting .350 with three homers and a 1.285 OPS over the last five games.

Bullpen performance could be a deciding factor. The Twins rank 7th, while the Diamondbacks' bullpen is a glaring weakness, ranked 27th. This disparity could tip the scales in a close game.

Despite the Diamondbacks being slight underdogs with a moneyline of +100, their potent offense and Nelson's potential for better performance suggest they might outperform expectations. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a high-scoring affair, which could play into Arizona's hands if their bats come alive.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Byron Buxton is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Carlos Santana pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.6% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Ryne Nelson in the 9th percentile when estimating his strikeout skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 34 games (+6.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 64 games (+7.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• Royce Lewis has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 13 games (+17.70 Units / 136% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 5.15 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.84

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