Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Prediction & Picks 8/2/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: August 2, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Frankie Montas - Brewers
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

On August 2, 2024, the Washington Nationals will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Nationals Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Nationals, currently 49-60, are having a rough season, while the Brewers sit at 61-47 and are solidly in contention for a playoff spot. This matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Jake Irvin for Washington and Frankie Montas for Milwaukee.

Jake Irvin, ranked #128 among MLB starters according to advanced stats, has shown some flashes of potential with a solid ERA of 3.44. However, his 3.94 SIERA indicates that he may have benefited from some good luck this season. Irvin's recent performances have been mediocre; he has started 22 games and holds a record of 8-8. He projects to pitch about 5.4 innings today, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 4.5 batters on average. His ability to limit walks (5.8 BB%) could be crucial against a Brewers lineup that is known for drawing free passes.

Frankie Montas, on the other hand, has struggled this season, posting a 5.01 ERA with a record of 4-8. Although Montas projects to pitch 6.0 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs, his low strikeout rate of 19.0% might give the Nationals an edge, as they are one of the least strikeout-prone teams in the league.

The Nationals' offense has been a mixed bag, ranking 25th overall but showing some promise with a respectable batting average. In contrast, Milwaukee's offense ranks 11th in MLB, backed by a strong batting average of .270. With high implied team totals of 4.39 runs for Washington and 4.61 runs for Milwaukee, this game should be competitive. As the Nationals look to turn their season around, this matchup could provide an opportunity against a struggling pitcher in Montas.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Frankie Montas has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an additional 3.3 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Sal Frelick's average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 84.3-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 82.2-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen ranks as the 10th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jake Irvin has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 10.1% more often this year (45.5%) than he did last year (35.4%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Juan Yepez has been lucky this year, posting a .394 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .303 — a .091 discrepancy.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.2% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 62 of their last 109 games (+8.13 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 58 of their last 107 games (+11.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+14.10 Units / 157% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.09 vs Washington Nationals 4.26

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