Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 5/11/2025

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers on May 11, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field, both teams find themselves struggling with records of 18-21 and 19-21, respectively. This Interleague matchup is significant as it marks the third game in the series, with both teams seeking to break free from their below-average performances this season.

In their most recent outing, the Rays won 3-2 over the Brewers. Tampa Bay's offense ranks just 23rd in MLB, struggling to convert opportunities into runs, although they have excelled on the basepaths with the 5th best stolen bases tally. The Brewers, on the other hand, sit at 24th in offensive rankings, particularly faltering in home runs with a dismal 26th ranking.

The pitching matchup features Drew Rasmussen for the Rays and Chad Patrick for the Brewers. Rasmussen, the 28th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, enters the game with a solid 3.09 ERA. However, both his xERA and FIP suggest he may be due for a decline in performance. He'll look to build on his average projection of 5.3 innings while allowing 2.1 earned runs, which is considerably better than Patrick's projections.

Chad Patrick, conversely, is viewed as one of the worst pitchers in the league, holding a 3.08 ERA and a concerning 4.38 xFIP. This disparity presents a promising opportunity for the Rays, who are favored with a moneyline of -140 and a projected team total of 4.54 runs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Chad Patrick's 86.8-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 2nd percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball bats like Christian Yelich generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Milwaukee Brewers bats as a group rank 30th- in baseball for power this year when judging by their 6.1% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Drew Rasmussen is an extreme groundball pitcher (47.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in George M. Steinbrenner Field — the #10 HR venue among all stadiums — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

In the past two weeks, Kameron Misner's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+6.80 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.75 Units / 47% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.1, Tampa Bay Rays 4.57

• Date: May 11, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chad Patrick - Brewers
  • Drew Rasmussen - Rays

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